Global macroeconomic growth remains stable, Moody's Ratings released a report recently saying. Therefore, Moody's maintained its expectation of soft landing for several G20 economies, and increased its 2024 economic growth forecast for China from the previous 4% to 4.5%, while 2025 forecast is kept at 4%.
China's GDP grew by 5.3% YoY and 4.2% in nominal terms in 1Q24, mainly driven by trade and manufacturing activity, with China's fiscal policy supporting the latter, according to Moody's.
Recent mixed data on retail sales, industrial production, consumer and business sentiment, employment and private credit demand suggests that growth momentum may be slowed in 2Q24. However, Moody's believed that supportive measures, such as stabilizing the property market development, as well as the strong carry-over from the end of 2023, will lead to solid GDP growth.
However, beyond the recent cyclical improvement, structural growth is expected to continue to slow down.
